Lots of change occurring in the past couple of months since I last wrote about Telsa pricing in Australia. The launch of the new Model Y being the biggest news and representing the 24th price change in Australia since the Model 3 went on sale. Interesting note is that even with an 'all new' model the price went down by $1,000 AUD. Amazing.

I was hoping by this point that I could directly reference the US price to keep my tracking and forecasting sheet in alignment but alas the US are still only being offered the Lauch Edition Model Y. Further complicating things, the USA now only offers a Model 3 LR RWD variant with a NMC battery made in the USA to make it eligible for the tax rebates vs the LFP version we get here meaning I cannot directly compare the base models currently either. Bummer.

With the tariff fun just kicking into gear I think forecasting price changes are going to become increasingly difficult. For now, I will focus on the tracking sheet which does give us some good history to help predict the future. Now onto the forecast.

It has been great to see pricing stabilise with Telsa now behaving more like a traditional auto maker offering end of quarter ‘incentives’ in various forms instead of discounts and price rises which have a direct impact on the 2nd hand market which in turn impacts on perceived (or real) depreciation.

Examples of the leavers Tesla is now using include offering a $3,500 discount if you purchase a via a Novated Lease, Referral discounts, Free UMC and Supercharging credits. All of these are not a change to the list price and as such don’t attract as much direct attention on the 2nd hand market. I am forecasting that we will see more offers like this moving forward. Other demand leavers Tesla could use are:

A free year of premium connectivity (did you know that early Teslas in Australia came with lifetime free premium connectivity)
free wheel option upgrades
free interior upgrade to white
free paint colour selection
free power boost
free HPWC (did you know that early Teslas in Australia came with a HPWC and a UMC)
extended trials of EAP or FSD (This has been offered from time to time)
free delivery fee.

Variables that might impact pricing.

China…

The Australian market is now under increased pressure from new Chinese brands delivering more EV’s in the same segment as the Model 3 and Y. This is now probably a bigger factor for our local pricing. Tesla want (and need) to maintain volume and although Telsa vehicles are subjectively better than the rest money talks and if the gap gets too large volume will fall. This pressure should keep Australia in check and keep overall downward pressure on pricing. If the above incentives don’t move the needle enough a round of price cuts likely will. How low can we go… that is the question.

AUD vs USD.

The traditional measure of when to expect pricing changes has been strangely stable over the past year with the Aussie dollar sticking around the $0.62 cent mark despite the turbulent changes we are seeing globally. Any breakout above $0.65 will increase the likelihood of a price cut and any fall below $0.60 could trigger a price rise.

Elon…

Well, he is certainly being Elon. Forecasting what he is going to do moving forward… impossible, I don’t think he even knows. 😊

For now, on the models I can compare in the tracking sheet I am happy to report that we are still buying Teslas for cheaper than the USA. I do not see that changing anytime soon.

All information including the current pricing comparison to the USA equivalent model (limited right now) is available at www.teslapriceforecaster.com by subscribing (donate or don't, its completely optional)

If you find this information useful and want to support me to continue this work the best way is by using my referral link when you order or want to take a test drive. I earn some Telsa points and you get a discount that varies depending on the factors above. When the program is active it is a true win win. https://www.tesla.com/en_au/referral/randall46741

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